Ukip manifesto launch: out with the “drivel”, in with the “serious”?
Ukip is launching its manifesto, which it claims contains “serious, fully-costed policies”. Its last effort, dismissed as “drivel” by Nigel Farage, included a number of enjoyable proposals such as...
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How does the churn of 2010 voters explain each party’s level of support?
If it wasn’t for the Lib Dem collapse, Labour would be polling below 30 per cent and Ed Miliband would not have made it to last night’s debate. Without the Lib Dems, Labour would be on 27 per cent. Or...
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Election 2015: New forecast confirms the campaign hasn’t changed polls – how...
Who is going to win the 2015 general election? Two weeks ago our latest election forecast predicted Labour would win slightly more seats than the Tories, in contrast to every other prediction at the...
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Election 2015: Will the SNP win every seat in Scotland? Their poll lead has...
This is a quick overview of recent polls north of the border, in the wake of new polls this week by MORI, TNS and Survation, and two last week by the Times/YouGov and Panelbase for the Sunday Times....
View ArticleElection 2015 odds: Miliband is a 59/41 favourite to become PM, despite...
I’m always been fascinated by cosmology and quantum mechanics. I think it’s because it demonstrates the power of numbers to see through the midst of time and show what happened a minuscule fraction of...
View ArticleElection 2015: Exclusive poll reveals who has legitimacy, what voters care...
Polls open in less than 24 hours. Seven new eve-of-election polls are due later today. We’ve had seven in the past 24 hours, with most suggesting the tied race May2015 has long forecast (but some...
View ArticleElection 2015: How accurate have eve-of-election polls been in the past?
Polls published on the eve of a general election do not have a good pedigree. It’s not just their infamous performance in 1992 that counts against them, though that remains the benchmark for...
View ArticleElection 2015: The 10 seats to watch on election night
This piece appears in this week’s issue of the New Statesman. There isn’t one big election happening in May, there are 650 small ones. That’s how many constituencies there are in the UK. We can be...
View ArticleElection 2015: Who is going to win the 2015 general election?
The exit poll will be out very shortly, and then we’ll have a good idea (or a false one). But first, here’s the game. No one is going to win an overall majority, so it’s all about who can cobble...
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